The S&P CNX Nifty regained its psychological 5,000 level while the BSE Sensex jumped 260.42 points, or 1.59%, to end at 16,676.74. The Sensex, which had touched an 18-month low of 15,848.83 on August 26, 2011, falling over 16% in a little over one month, has jumped 828 points, or 5%, in two trading sessions. The benchmark index had hit a recent high of 18,871.29 on July 25, 2011.

Equity strategists maintain that growth has cooled in other Asian nations like Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia in the wake of sluggish US recovery and Europe’s debt crisis, which have hit demand for the region’s exports.

 Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

Technical  Vew point  Begining  last week, we have made things simpler for readers, we have incorporated  a  indicator overlaid in prices which gives the common investor the over all trend of the commodity/Indices/currency pair at a glance. As we see in the Nifty 4  Hourly price chart – Nifty is trading higher and is  above  the trend indicator ( in yellow) – a bullish indication.

Along with we have given the Cycle strenght indicator for  Nifty – and the way to interpret is as long as the indicator vlaues is above 50% – a bullish ( strength) signal and below 50% reading indicated a bearish (weakness) signal.

As we see Nifty is showing strength   at a positive  18% reading. The reading should improve on the back of Nifty continues to raise.

Do keep coming as we will start  posting as we see trend reversals. Do click the url to find out the previous and latest post on  Nifty trading Tips  

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 This is the fifth consecutive weekly drop in the benchmark Sensex.

The markets witnessed volatile trading during the week. The 30-scrip benchmark index gained more than 2% in the first two day of trading this week. However, the Sensex tumbled in the later part of the week. The 30-scrip index tanked 297.5 points or 1.84% at 15,848.83 points on Friday.

At the National Stock Exchange, the 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty also slumped nearly two percent during the weekly trade. The Nifty closed 1.9% down at 4,747.8 points on Friday.

However, the American markets closed in the positive after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the regulators would provide economic stimulus if needed to bring the growth momentum back on track.

The US markets ended almost 1.5% higher, reversing losses of as much as 2% just after Bernanke started his speech at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1.21 percent higher at 11,284.50 points and the S&P 500 index gained 1.51% to close at 1,176.80 points on Friday.

 Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

Technical  Vew point  Begining this week, we have made things simpler for readers, we have incorporated  a  indicator overlaid in prices which gives the common investor the over all trend of the commodity/Indices/currency pair at a glance. As we see in the Nifty 4  Hourly price chart – Nifty is trading lower and is  below the trend indicator ( in red) – a bearish indication.

Along with we have given the relative strenght indicator for  Nifty – and the way to interpret is as long as the indicator vlaues is above 50% – a bullish ( strength) signal and below 50% reading indicated a bearish (weakness) signal.

As we see Nifty is showing weakeness  at a negative 96% reading which is sign of weakness. 

Do keep coming as we will start  posting as we see trend reversals. Do click the url to find out the previous and latest post on  Nifty trading Tips  

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 Going forward, markets will take cues from Reliance Industries earnings on Monday and the Reserve Bank of India’s tightening of policy on Tuesday. Economists are expecting RBI to pause the rate rise cycle when it meets on Tuesday, after raising these another 25 bps. The government has raised interest rates 10 times in the last one year to contain high levels of inflation.

 Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

Our Vew point

As seen on the chart, Nifty has commenced an  intermediate rally and should surpass the recent high 5740 achieved on 8th July and its on its way towards 5900-6000 levels . Click the url to find out the previous and latest post on  Nifty trading Tips  

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Suresh Mahadevan of UBS believes negative earnings momentum is priced in. “We have revised our March 2012 Sensex and Nifty targets to 21,000 & 6,500 respectively.” he said.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 18,765, down 93 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty dropped 33 points to 5,628. 

Infosys was down over 2% ahead of earnings. Second largest software services exporter is expected to post profit after tax of Rs 1,736 crore in first quarter FY12, a 4.5% fall as compared to Rs 1,818 crore in previous quarter, according to CNBC-TV18 estimates. TCS and Wipro lost 1-1.5%. The BSE IT Index fell 1.5%.

Financial companies’ shares too were putting pressure on the market. SBI, HDFC, HDFC Bank, PNB and Axis Bank were down 1-2%. ICICI Bank slipped 0.5%.

 Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

Our Vew point

We believe with a convergence of multitude of Feb Ratios converging. CD= 0.707 AB  and CD=0.786 BC ( ref chart). Nifty index should continue the minor correction over the next few days. Once the minor correction is over, Nifty should continue its  intermediate rally upwards. Click the url to find out the previous and latest post on  Nifty trading Tips  

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Market players said the rising crude oil prices and the stickiness of the inflation rate at an elevated level are the two mains reasons making market players cautious. In addition, Thursday’s decision by the Frankfurt-based  European Central Banks to raise rates for the first time in about two-and-half years is also pushing investors and speculators on the back foot, they said.

Nifty April futures prices faced upward resistance levels of 5970 coming from 78.6%  fibonaci levels. Its also interesting to note the previous corrective rally too faced  resistance at 78.6%  fibonaci levels ( refer price chart)

 Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips   

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Nifty  is slowly gaining downward momentum and on the short term takiing support at  5232-5177 levels. ( previous pivots levels.)

We have been maintaining our bearish stand from our intermediate rally top achieved on Jan 3 2011. Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

We belive with a convergence of multitude of fib ratios ( not shown)  would take Nifty index support at 5000 levels.  For Elliott wave traders, a high probalility Nifty Elliott wave count has been shown on the chart.

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Global crude oil prices, which has crossed $100-mark a barrel and with India imports over 70 per cent of its oil requirements and that will have a cascading effect on the economy when the country is already battling high inflation.

Traders and investors preferred to play safe ahead of the Union Budget to be announced on February 28, which might give direction to the market either side.

We have been maintaining our bearish stand from our intermediate rally top achieved on Jan 3 2011. Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

We belive with a convergence of multitude of Cycles converging during the next week ( not shown) , Nifty index should take a strong intermediate support around  5177-5077 levels. For Elliott wave traders, a high probalility Nifty Elliott wave count has been shown on the chart.

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We see support coming from CD is – 1.618  range of AB at 5132 levles and we have another fibonacci retracement coming from CD is 2 times BC.  ( refer chart). Incidently Nifty has a support coming  1/8  Gann support at 5156 levels.

We have been maintaining our bearish stand from our intermediate rally top achieved on Jan 3 2011. Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

With stockhastics still remaining in oversold zone, our  advice to investors is to enter markets only when the Nifty fifty index price cross  above the downward channel line ( shown in chart).  Till then, remain on the sidelines and check our post on a regular basis for better market timing.

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Nifty slipped below the recent lows made on 1st February (Sensex 17,982, Nifty 5,402) to 17,927 and 5,369 respectively.

We have been maintaining our bearish stand from our intermediate rally top achieved on Jan 3 2011. Pl check the url below on the series of weekly post on this   Nifty trading Tips  

With stockhastics still remaining in oversold zone, we see the next support coming from a cluster of fibonacci price levels at 5241 levels. See charts clearing marking the price levels .

We advice investors to enter markets only when the Nifty fifty index price cross  above the downward channel line ( shown in chart).  Till then, remain on the sidelines and check our post on a regular basis for better market timing.

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Nifty futures crashed below 5,500 after losing support at 5,600, but staged a modest pullback in the end on short covering and closed above the crucial support at 5,530. We had all along indicated in this blog that the Nifty after peaking out during the 1st week of Jan 2011 will continue to remain week until Feb end 2011.

Nifty futures should find a support at 5379 levels being 61.8% of the raise from May 25th and previous bottom at 5348 coming from 31st Aug bottom.

Also shown in the chart is 21 day Stochastics in the oversold levels and telling us to be away from the markets.

Click the url to find out the previous and latest    Nifty Trading Tips futures trading calls from the Editors Desk 

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